IRAN: DEAL OR NO DEAL

For the next few weeks the Congress and the Media will pontificate, dissect and proclaim the virtues and the defects of the Agreement with Iran that was just signed by the US and the major world powers: Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and Europe.  The agreement will be endorsed by the UN and by all the signatory nations.  And the world will watch to see if the US Congress will uphold the diplomacy of its President and Secretary of State or like 1919 reject it.

Iran seeks to be a nuclear power as Pakistan and India are (and Israel and South Africa may be).  The United States and rest of the world feels world peace is more secure if Iran does not become a nuclear power.  The question became how do you stop that from happening.  As in most situations when a nation seeks to go a way that other nations do not want there are two options War and Negotiation.  President Obama united the nations of the world including such disparate “partners” and China and Russia and imposed the most extensive program of economic sanctions ever to pressure Iran to agree to forgo its nuclear plans.  Economic sanctions have, in the past not succeeded in their objective.  Sanctions did not affect Italy after it invaded Ethiopia in the 1930's and while they may yet be successful have not stopped the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The Iran sanctions regime worked. It worked because the world united behind it and it was tough.  Iran was pressured into negotiating knowing that the end result would be an admission on their part that they were developing a nuclear military capability and would cease doing so.  And the negotiations succeeded in an Agreement that would end for at least ten years such nuclear development and give the world some time after that to prevent, it wished to the resumption of a nuclear Iran.  Without these negotiations and the earlier interim agreement adopted early last year Iran would likely have a nuclear weapon albeit at the expense of reducing many of her people to poverty level.  Unless of course the US and/or Israel used military force to stop the nuclear development.

So what faced the US was a decision between War and Negotiation to stop the Iran bomb.  President Obama chose the course of negotiation heeding the words of John F Kennedy that we “never fear to negotiate”.  And the negotiation was successful.  It brought about an Agreement with verification procedures akin to those that were agreed upon with the Soviet Union in the 1980's by President Reagan.    

As former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton once opined “If Barack Obama walked on Water the Republicans would say ‘the President can’t swim”.   And so of course the Republican party its candidates and it’s voices in Washington immediately attacked the Agreement as too weak and a Munich like appeasement of an enemy, The Republicans will seek to get the House and Senate to reject the agreement. The President can then veto their Resolution of Rejection and his veto will be upheld and the Agreement in effect as long as one-third plus one of the members of either house stand with the Agreement.  The Agreement is going to take effect.

If the Agreement is successfully implemented Iran will not have nuclear military capability for ten to 12 years if ever.  If the Agreement is broken Iran can become a nuclear power within a year of further development.   If there were no Agreement Iran would be or would be about to e a nuclear power.  While all the commentators and candidates enunciate their positions and discuss the complexity of the Agreement and its 80 or 150 (if you include the appendixes) pages the American people will reduce this Agreement to the simple question of do we want a War with Iran now or do we want to wait ten years in the hope that no war will then be necessary. 

The 20th century was a century of the most horrible war and genocide in the first half and a second half of fear of nuclear annihilation. The President has two young daughters.  I have three grandchildren and my nieces and nephews have some dozen young children between them;  these youngsters deserve to live in a century of relative peace and security.

The Answer to the Question of the Agreement with Iran is Simple - GIVE PEACE A CHANCE.

15 July 2015